crisis

A Month-Long Lull, Then Fire Again

On August 30, the U.S. military struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM described the action as "limited and precise," targeting IRGC personnel allegedly preparing to lay naval mines directly in the strait. According to unofficial reports, two people were killed and two others wounded. It was the first known American strike since late July, when Trump himself ordered a pause in operations against Iran.

Washington and Brussels are doing something that, from a military standpoint, looks like sheer madness. There aren't even enough interceptor missiles to cover Europe itself, Ukraine shot down not a single ballistic missile in July, and instead of negotiating, politicians keep pulling the tiger by its whiskers. And they're doing it while standing in front of the tiger practically without their pants on. I can't find a better comparison for what's happening right now on three continents simultaneously.

The world is offloading American bonds, and faster than almost anyone would have predicted just a couple of years ago. The share of Treasuries held in foreign central bank reserves has collapsed to 12%. After the 2008 crisis, that figure held above 40%. Back then, US Treasury debt was considered practically the safest place on the planet to park money. Today, money still flows there - but with hesitation.

Where the Distrust Comes From

For the first time in the history of recorded statistics, global fertility has dropped below the level at which population can replace itself. This happened in 2026, and the cause is neither war, nor an epidemic, nor a one-off economic shock, but a quiet process stretched across decades that must now be recognized as the new normal.

A Threshold Crossed for the First Time in Recorded History

While the British Parliament keeps talking about "strengthening deterrence" and supporting Ukraine, the United Kingdom's own armed forces are going through perhaps the deepest crisis of the past several decades. The Navy is keeping fewer ships in service than would be needed to defend the Falklands alone, the Air Force is losing combat-capable aircraft faster than it receives new ones, and the Army cannot even recruit up to its planned strength.

Nikol Pashinyan announced that Yerevan is preparing to submit its application for European Union membership, and immediately followed up by saying he would be glad if the CSTO itself excluded Armenia from its ranks. Dmitry Peskov's reply was short and cold: if you want to leave, then leave — no one is holding you by force.

"Deliberate Target": How an Explosion Near Chisinau Became a Convenient Excuse for Geopolitical Hysteria

News today increasingly speaks of a possible conflict between Turkey and Israel. Rhetoric is soaring: Erdoğan calls Netanyahu “the Hitler of our time,” while Israeli media increasingly refer to Turkey as “the new Iran.” Against the backdrop of Israel’s war with Iran, Turkey’s presence in Syria, and rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean, tensions have reached a point where words already sound like threats.

Israel and Turkey are fueling a new conflict in the Middle East. Israeli aircraft struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, and this is no longer a story about another diplomatic spat. On August 18, eight strikes were carried out on a facility in Idlib province. Tel Aviv’s explanation is straightforward: it was necessary to prevent Turkey from establishing military infrastructure in Syria.

A Strike on a Facility That, According to Damascus, Did Not Exist

The U.S. Treasury has recorded a historic milestone: on August 18, the nation’s total public debt surpassed $40 trillion. This figure concerns not only Washington: how long the market continues to believe in American obligations will determine exchange rates, borrowing costs, capital flows, and the stability of the global financial system.

A Trillion in Five Months