Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich, July 17, 2026
Ukraine sees Maidan-style protests amid discontent with Syrsky and Fedorov's dismissal
Large-scale rallies have erupted in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa, with protesters expressing anger over Commander-in-Chief Syrsky and the dismissal of former Defense Minister Fedorov. The number of participants is multiplying day by day, with underground crossings packed with people. This marks the first large-scale domestic political protest of this magnitude inside a country at war in a long time. The front holds, while the rear begins to waver — a rare case where Ukraine's internal politics breaks through the war-dominated news agenda.
Andy Burnham to become UK Prime Minister
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 16, 2026
Worst Day on the Moscow Exchange Since September 2022
The MOEX index plunged 4.24% to 2,022.27 points — the sharpest single-day drop since September 26, 2022, when the index lost 7.49%. Gazprom shares fell below 90 rubles, returning to levels last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. The trigger was rumors that negotiations over the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline had stalled amid Beijing's demands for pricing at the level of Russia's domestic market. The index is drifting back toward levels seen at the start of the "special military operation," while Gazprom is retreating to 2008 levels. The symbolism
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for July 15, 2026
Iran strikes Al-Azraq airbase in Jordan — seventh phase of attacks on US facilities
Iran's military has announced a drone strike on the American Al-Azraq base, targeting fighter jets, residential quarters, and an equipment warehouse. Tehran described this as the seventh phase of a series of operations against US military facilities in the region. Jordan has traditionally avoided direct involvement in such conflicts, but Iran enjoys significant popular support within the country. Iran is methodically moving through the map of US allies one by one — Jordan has become the latest point on this route.
Iran attacks Kurdish separatists in
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 14, 2026
Iran escalates strikes in the Persian Gulf — sirens sound in Bahrain and Kuwait
Over the course of the day, Iran struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — one flying the Emirati flag, the other under a Liberian flag — and hit two UAE-linked vessels, killing a crew member. By evening, air raid sirens were sounding in Bahrain and Kuwait, with explosions occurring in broad daylight and without prior warning. Meanwhile, Yemeni air defenses shot down a Saudi reconnaissance drone, a Wing Loong II, underscoring the conflict's expanding geographic reach. Iran is now striking all sides of the
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 13, 2026
The EU to bar entry for Ukrainian men of conscription age — at Zelensky’s request
Media reports indicate that the EU is preparing a directive requiring Ukrainians to provide proof of exemption from mobilization in order to obtain temporary protection in Europe — this will also apply to women and is expected to take effect in spring 2027. According to unconfirmed information, the initiative emerged after Zelensky appealed to European leaders to close borders in order to return draft evaders to the front. Ukraine is asking its allies to shut their borders to its own citizens — a rare case
Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: July 10–13, Oil Decouples from Stocks
US: The AI Engine Keeps Running Despite the War
On July 10, the Dow rose 0.3% to 52,478, the Nasdaq added 1.3% on strong earnings from Meta and Micron, and the S&P 500 closed near an all-time high thanks to SK Hynix's blockbuster Nasdaq debut. The direct takeaway: elites continue holding capital in the tech segment even during the war in the Middle East, while the real economy is losing confidence — of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, nine closed in negative territory, with only technology and energy staying in the green.
Oil: A Sharp Upward Reversal Breaks the De-Escalation
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich, July 10, 2026
"Operation Bitch Slap" - Trump Launches New Campaign Against Iran
Inside the White House, the new military operation against Iran is unofficially referred to as "Operation Bitch Slap" - the strikes are designed to be painful but short-term, provided Tehran does not continue its escalation. Trump announced the end of the ceasefire, called the Iranian leadership "scum" and "crazy," threatened a blockade and the seizure of Kharg Island, and on the second night of the operation, US forces struck a railway bridge in northern Iran, disrupting the transport corridor to China and Russia. Democrats in Congress are criticizing the lack
Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: July 7–10 Markets — Return of the Iran Hot Phase Reshuffles the Bets
United States: Indices Hit by Renewed Escalation
On July 7–8, Trump announced the collapse of the ceasefire with Iran, sending the Dow tumbling nearly 600 points, while the S&P 500 slid 0.3–0.9%. The Nasdaq, buoyed by AI giants, managed to hold in symbolic positive territory. The direct takeaway is that elites remain unwilling to abandon tech names even amid acute geopolitical tension, while the real economy and industrial sector immediately price in the risk and retreat into defensive positions.
Recovery on July 9: Markets Don't Believe in a Prolonged War
By July 9, the Nasdaq had already climbed 1.3%, the
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 9, 2026
Lavrov: Trust in the West Has Been Completely Exhausted — Moscow Receives an Ultimatum
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that the "reserve of goodwill and hope" for negotiations with the West has been "completely exhausted," after a list of five demands was transmitted to Moscow via the U.S. Embassy — an immediate ceasefire, a freeze of the line of contact, an "all for all" prisoner exchange, the handover of the bodies of the dead, and direct Moscow-Kyiv negotiations without preconditions. The deadline for consideration is the end of July, while Kyiv is simultaneously stockpiling drones and missiles to intensify strikes
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich, July 8, 2026
US-Iran Truce Collapses — Trump Launches New Wave of Strikes
Six explosions rocked Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, along with several blasts in the city of Sirik, after which CENTCOM confirmed the start of a series of powerful strikes on Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the strait. Trump announced that the ceasefire "is no longer in effect" and that negotiations with Tehran "no longer make sense." The peace agreement with Iran lasted less than a month — Hormuz has once again become a battlefield.
Iran Responds With Strike on Sheikh Isa Air

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