Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: October 12–13. Moscow Is Rising While Washington Counts Its Losses

United States: The Record Rests on a Handful of Chipmakers

On October 12, the S&P 500 closed at 7,807 (-0.1%), the Dow rose 0.4% to 51,850, and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. The semiconductor index has fallen for a fifth straight day and now stands 17% below its June peak. More than 4 in 10 S&P 500 stocks are in the red this year. Takeaway: the market is being held up by 5 to 10 names, while the broader economy sags under the Fed's rate policy. The elites are feeding the storefront, and everything else is being quietly sold off.

Oil: Brent Above $105 Without Peace

As of October 13, Brent is trading around $105 and WTI around $92.50. Goldman has raised its December Brent forecast to $90 and put the geopolitical premium at more than $20. WTI is cheap relative to Brent because of expensive sea freight between the US and Europe. Takeaway: even the most cautious banks do not expect a quick peace; they are merely arguing over the price of war.

Russia: The MOEX Index at Its Highest Since June 19

On October 13, the MOEX Russia Index closed at 2,418.82 points (+1%), and the RTS Index rose 1.1%. Interfax attributes the rise to an easing of US sanctions pressure amid the United States' own economic problems. Takeaway: Washington, with 10-year bonds yielding above 5% and inflation tied to oil, is beginning to pay for its own sanctions. The Russian market is buying this.

The Ruble and Business: The Yuan Instead of the Dollar

The official dollar rate for October 14 is 83.87 rubles, and the yuan is around 12.5. On October 13, Gazprom Neft collected bids for yuan-denominated bonds. Tatneft fell because of a dividend cut-off; this is a technical factor, not a signal. Takeaway: major Russian business is borrowing from China in yuan because Western capital is closed to it. This is already a lasting financial architecture.

Economic Cycles: Why Their Convergence Is Not a Reason for Panic but a Reason for Strategy

13 October, 2026

Energy: The "Energy Truce" Lasted a Day

Trump announced an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky said Moscow had violated it, and oil rose after strikes on Ukrainian power plants. On October 13, Brent dropped 1.3% on expectations that more Russian diesel would return to the market. Takeaway: Washington needs Russian diesel to bring down prices before the November elections, so sanctions are being eased selectively rather than surrendered wholesale.

Defense Sector: The Market Is Bored, Oil Is Fighting

There is no fresh trading data on defense stocks specifically for October 12–13 in the sources. It is known that they have been below their August highs for months, even though Pentagon contracts have not been canceled. Meanwhile, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is escalating, and strikes on energy infrastructure are occurring on both fronts. Takeaway: oil infrastructure has become the main target, and defense demand will grow regardless of share prices.