Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich, October 26, 2026

Serbia: Vučić loses the election, and the "Student List" says it won't impose sanctions on Russia

The opposition took roughly 53% of the vote and 140 of 250 seats. Its representative, Bakić, said Belgrade will not introduce sanctions and has no plans to give up Russian gas. If those words become policy, Moscow will keep its footing in Serbia but lose a familiar interlocutor in Vučić.

Russia and the EU: Putin may demand NATO roll back to its 1997 borders

The Telegraph reports that at the next round of talks Moscow could demand the withdrawal of alliance troops from Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland. Such terms are plainly unacceptable to NATO. They suggest the Kremlin wants to discuss far more than Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine: Peskov says continued trilateral talks do not mean any limit on fighting

At the same time, Zelensky has declared that Ukraine will not be neutral. The negotiating track and the war are running in parallel, and the sides remain irreconcilable on fundamental questions.

Ukraine: Prime minister announces tighter mobilization by December 1

He said "the survival of the state is at stake," and in the Rada there were calls to abolish draft deferments for everyone except the president, ministers and members of parliament. Kyiv is acknowledging a shortage of manpower at the front, which weighs on any negotiating position it takes.

US and Iran: Qatar proposes a five-day exchange of concessions

The proposal covers resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the American blockade of Iranian ports. The sides are still at odds over timing and nuclear concessions, and Trump has said he will soon decide whether to "make a deal" or "finish off" Iran. Tomorrow Putin will host the Iranian president and the Emir of Qatar in Moscow, which gives Russia a role in the dispute.

The Middle East on the Brink: A New Escalation With Iran

26 October, 2026

Russia and Africa: Putin to speak at the gas summit and open the Russia–Africa summit

Forty-eight African countries have confirmed their participation in the October 28–29 summit, 22 of them represented by heads of state. In the first nine months of 2026, Russia shipped 13 million tonnes of grain to Africa. Moscow is showing that it has partners beyond the West.