"Significant progress": how a single prisoner swap was sold as the road to peace
The first three-way talks in nine months, held in Abu Dhabi, ended with exactly one tangible result: an agreement to exchange prisoners. Everything else was sold to you as "productive."
The facts. At the November 10–11 meeting, the territorial question did not move. On the second day, the Russian delegation refused to discuss a ceasefire and proposed talking instead about the security architecture of all Europe and the demands of December 2021. Kushner still called the outcome productive, and he acknowledged that a security-guarantee agreement for Ukraine is impossible without a resolution of the territorial issue. After two and a half hours in the Kremlin on November 12, he said both sides had agreed to bring the Europeans into the next round. The Kremlin did not confirm it. Meanwhile, London added Sibur and Vostok Oil to its sanctions list, so the restrictions now cover all ten of Russia's largest oil producers, and the EU is preparing to approve sanctions on refineries and the "shadow fleet" on November 16.
The debunking. "Progress" is the currency Washington uses to buy time. Trump wants Putin's and Zelensky's signatures at the G20 summit in Florida in December, so every round needs a winning headline, even when there is nothing to discuss except prisoners. Moscow plays the mirror game. It talks about "European security" to turn negotiations over Ukraine into a bargaining session over NATO, and so it gives up nothing. The claim that Europe's participation has been "agreed" is a classic maneuver: announce a deal before the other side confirms it, then force that side to explain itself.
What it means for you. While the politicians haggle, the sanctions squeeze only tightens. That means neither the exchange rate nor incomes will get any relief from fine words. A fruitful prisoner exchange is a human joy, but it is not peace.
The summit's only result was an exchange of people. Everything else was traded for headlines.
.png){kind=icon}
.png){kind=icon}
.png)
.png){kind=icon}
