It was a packed week. Here is how the elites and big money reacted.
AI: From Record Valuation to Record Drop
On Monday, Anthropic filed for an IPO, disclosing revenue growth of 1,368% over the past year. On Wednesday, SK Hynix jumped 13% on a sevenfold rise in profit. Then the bill arrived. Alphabet fell 12% between Tuesday and Thursday, wiping out roughly half a trillion dollars in market value. Amazon posted a cash outflow of $42.4 billion. Intel was down about 25% in premarket trading on Friday, and Nasdaq 100 futures were off 2.5%.
The takeaway: big money is no longer buying promises. It wants proof of payback. The AI race was financed with debt, and now shareholders are tallying up what others have spent.
Rotation: Money Flees to Boring Sectors
On Thursday, more than 400 S&P 500 companies rose while tech sank. Energy, financials, utilities and health care are closing October with solid gains. The S&P 500 gained about 1% over the month and is up more than 12% since the start of the year.
The takeaway: the elites are not fleeing the market. They are moving into defensive and commodity plays. This is not panic but a careful exit from overvalued assets.
Oil: Brent at a Six-Month High
Brent rose 12% in October and traded in a range of $115–118 on Friday, with WTI at about $103–104. Prices dipped slightly on Thursday on hopes of US–Iran talks, then climbed again by Friday on signals of possible new strikes on Iran. President Trump is reportedly weighing them after the midterm elections. Flows through Hormuz have recovered, but inventories are low, and gas in Europe costs more than €100.
The takeaway: the market is paying not for today's shortage but for fear of an "after the elections" scenario.
Russia: Index Near 2,500
On Friday morning, the MOEX Russia Index traded around 2,498 and the RTS Index near 975. Support comes from expensive oil and a shortage of refined products, partly caused by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Brokers are raising their forecast for the average 2026 Brent price to $92.9.
The takeaway: Russian exporters are getting a double bonus, from high prices and from tight supply. The risk is also clear: refinery strikes limit the country's own earnings from processing.
US Elections: Markets Hold Their Breath
Next week Americans face the midterm elections, along with corporate earnings and labor market data. Analysts say plainly that the vote will be the next big test, and that uncertainty will ease after it, whatever the outcome.
The takeaway: the elites are putting off big bets until November. Oil is pricing in possible strikes on Iran after the vote, while equities are waiting to see who controls Congress.
Defense
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are pushing oil higher, and the Pentagon continues to restock its missile inventories.
The takeaway: defense stocks are lagging, but orders and budgets are not being cut. The pullback looks like a pause, not a reversal.
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