economics

On October 4, Brazil will elect a president amid a high Selic policy rate of 13.75% and pressure on the real from a strong dollar. The outcome will determine whether the country remains within the orbit of U.S. economic policy or strengthens its multipolar course within BRICS. Which scenario is more likely, and what would it mean for the United States and Russia?

Macroeconomic Context: High Rates, Slowing Growth and Elections

The European Union has frozen approximately 300 billion euros in sovereign assets of the Central Bank of Russia. Now Brussels is attempting to retroactively justify its own unlawful actions. Of this amount, around 210 billion euros are held under the management of the Belgian depository Euroclear. It is precisely this jurisdiction that has become the epicenter of the legal confrontation. Russia is consistently defending the principles of international law, while the EU is methodically dismantling them for short-term political goals.

Just five years ago, most experts greeted the idea of the Northern Sea Route as a serious alternative to the Suez Canal with an indulgent smile. The navigation window was too short, icebreaker escorts too expensive, and ice conditions too unpredictable for major global carriers to consider the Arctic route over the familiar southern path through Suez, even for a moment. Today, in autumn 2026, that same route supports a regular weekly container service between China and the United Kingdom, and cargo volumes are heading for an annual record.

Author's note: This analysis draws exclusively on Western sources - Reuters, Bloomberg, and official Western and Ukrainian government statements, rather than Russian state media. Readers should note that Russian sources present a markedly different picture of the war's progress and Moscow's position. Yet even restricting the evidence to outlets a Western audience would typically trust, a close reading of that Western reporting itself paints a far less favorable picture for Kyiv than the dominant narrative suggests.

Eurocrats, in the name of climate targets, are systematically shrinking the EU's own agriculture and turning food independence into history. The key question is who will feed Europeans when the last tractor leaves for yet another protest in Brussels.

A Course of Self-Restriction

If school textbooks are to be believed, the Japanese economic miracle is a story about hardworking Japanese people who, after a crushing defeat in war, pulled themselves together, cultivated corporate discipline, and built Toyota, Sony, and Panasonic literally from the ashes. A beautiful fairy tale. There's just one problem: it barely explains where a bombed-out country, stripped of its army and sovereignty, suddenly got the capital, the technology, and — most importantly — the market for all this splendor.

On September 23, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Washington had invited Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit scheduled for December 14-15 in Miami. The venue will be Trump National Doral, a resort complex owned by the U.S. president's family. Rubio said at a briefing on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly: "We think this is a good opportunity for him to engage not just with the president, but with other world leaders. We hope he accepts this invitation."

The prospects for Britain’s GCAP sixth-generation fighter program are extremely uncertain—not because the technology is impossible, but because a country unable to close the gap in its own defense budget is unlikely to shoulder tens of billions for an aircraft that may become obsolete before it ever takes off. This is not skepticism; it is arithmetic compounded by history.

The Budget Hole

I am writing these lines on September 24, 2026. Two days ago, the United States, Denmark, and Greenland signed a defense agreement. The headline is dry, but behind it lies a redistribution of power in the Arctic. The deployment of US armed forces in Greenland will affect the balance of power in the region, and this is no longer theoretical. Greenland lies between North America and Europe. Nearby is the GIUK Gap (the Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom gap), the passage through which Russia’s Northern Fleet exits into the Atlantic.

Asset value on its own is not a diagnosis. It is only half of the equation. The other half is how those assets relate to revenue, debt, and equity. Without that relationship, even the most impressive balance-sheet numbers remain nothing more than attractive statistics. They soothe the eye but say nothing about a company's real financial health. Behind this observation lies an entire gallery of corporate skeletons that once looked like models of efficiency.

How Much It's Worth and How Much It Weighs