Russia

A second front of the Iran war has opened on the Arabian Peninsula, and the tone there is set not by Saudi skyscrapers but by Houthi missiles. What is happening between Ansar Allah, the Yemeni government and Riyadh? What does it mean for Russians and for business? How long will it last, and who is responsible for what?

How the Truce Collapsed

Prospects for a change in the US approach to Ukraine received concrete confirmation over the past week: a diesel deal with Moscow, a speed limit on Starshield, and discussion of easing sanctions on tankers. What exactly happened? How much of a turning point is it? What does it give Russian business and the budget? Let us go through the facts.

What Happened This Week

I have worked with specialized thermal engineering structures for 34 years. In that time I have seen several crises, but the current one is different: the entire chain is breaking at once, from design to supply, installation and operation. A heavy-duty furnace for petrochemicals, aluminum, cement or power generation was never an off-the-shelf product. Today it has also become a project with an unpredictable budget and timeline.

A fire at the Cardón refinery in Venezuela has shut down the country's second-largest plant, and the world has barely noticed. Is it an accident or a symptom? Why does Caracas have no money for repairs? And what does any of this have to do with the depleted US strategic reserve? Let's start with the facts.

What Happened at Cardón

Lithium in Latin America is controlled not by corporations but by the rules of the game in three countries. Chile is steering toward the state, Argentina is courting investors, and Bolivia has still not started production. Who is actually pumping the brine? Whose money is behind the projects? And where does Russia fit in?

Three Countries, Three Models

Can Russia get access to TSMC chips? Formally, no, and the situation has not changed since 2022. What is stuck in Taiwan? What workarounds remain? What is being used instead? Let's take it step by step.

What Russia Actually Lost

On October 4, Brazil will elect a president amid a high Selic policy rate of 13.75% and pressure on the real from a strong dollar. The outcome will determine whether the country remains within the orbit of U.S. economic policy or strengthens its multipolar course within BRICS. Which scenario is more likely, and what would it mean for the United States and Russia?

Macroeconomic Context: High Rates, Slowing Growth and Elections

The European Union has frozen approximately 300 billion euros in sovereign assets of the Central Bank of Russia. Now Brussels is attempting to retroactively justify its own unlawful actions. Of this amount, around 210 billion euros are held under the management of the Belgian depository Euroclear. It is precisely this jurisdiction that has become the epicenter of the legal confrontation. Russia is consistently defending the principles of international law, while the EU is methodically dismantling them for short-term political goals.

Four years ago, within weeks of February 24, 2022, thousands of Russians were searching for tickets to any country they could still fly to. Today, in October 2026, the picture looks fundamentally different. Entry to the United States has formally become harder, the number of people wanting to leave for good has fallen, and among those who have already left, a growing number are discussing a return. The wave of emigration has not fully receded, but it has changed form.

Just five years ago, most experts greeted the idea of the Northern Sea Route as a serious alternative to the Suez Canal with an indulgent smile. The navigation window was too short, icebreaker escorts too expensive, and ice conditions too unpredictable for major global carriers to consider the Arctic route over the familiar southern path through Suez, even for a moment. Today, in autumn 2026, that same route supports a regular weekly container service between China and the United Kingdom, and cargo volumes are heading for an annual record.