geopolitics

Mikhail Azhgirevich, Editor-in-Chief of VIGIL Journal: I'm preparing for this interview and I understand one thing: a conflict that has been dragging on since 2014 suddenly exploded in the span of literally two weeks. According to Reuters, by mid-September the Houthis had seized the port of Mokha, the island of Perim, and the entire Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and then struck Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu with missiles. Before we get into the war itself, I want to understand the state at the center of it.

The Middle East has entered an entirely new gray zone. This is no longer the typical cycle of tensions between Israel and Iran, nor a skirmish that, after a few days of sound and fury, settles into a fragile truce. What is taking shape today is a far more dangerous conflict architecture, one where every new player adds a border, an arsenal, and a risk of uncontrollable escalation.

The United Kingdom, for the first time in its centuries-long history, stands on the threshold of genuine disintegration. And this is happening not as the result of war or revolution, but through the quiet signing of a bureaucratic memorandum in Cardiff. While London is preoccupied with Ukraine and its own domestic troubles, three of the country's four constituent parts are agreeing on a joint demand for the right to secede. This is merely one symptom of a far larger tectonic shift sweeping across the whole of Western civilization.

Who are Yemen's Houthis, and how many of them are there today? They are a Shia insurgent movement that officially calls itself "Ansar Allah." The group controls territory home to 60-65% of Yemen's population. Its armed forces number up to 350,000 fighters. This week, in September 2026, the movement broke through to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, sending world oil prices surging past 100 dollars a barrel.

Who the Houthis Are and Where the Name Comes From

Britain and Russia were not always adversaries. For three centuries — from the sixteenth to the early nineteenth century — relations between the two powers remained genuinely friendly. During that time, Russia saved Britain itself from military catastrophe on three separate occasions in the largest conflicts of the modern era. The turning point came precisely when Russian expansion into Central Asia first directly touched what London considered the absolute priority of its foreign policy: the security of India.

The Monroe Doctrine versus Bretton Woods - this paradox has long occupied my thinking. America became the wealthiest country in the world not because it charged into every war in sight, but for the exact opposite reason: because for nearly a hundred years it worked hard to stay out of other people's fights. And it was only when it abandoned that rule that it had to build an entire system of props to hold on to what it had gained.

A Month-Long Lull, Then Fire Again

On August 30, the U.S. military struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM described the action as "limited and precise," targeting IRGC personnel allegedly preparing to lay naval mines directly in the strait. According to unofficial reports, two people were killed and two others wounded. It was the first known American strike since late July, when Trump himself ordered a pause in operations against Iran.

It is hard to find a more contradictory and painful image for Venezuela than this one: a country whose president was bombed, captured, kidnapped and taken out of its own territory by the United States is now celebrating oil agreements with the very same power that, only yesterday, was exercising a relationship of force over it.

While the British Parliament keeps talking about "strengthening deterrence" and supporting Ukraine, the United Kingdom's own armed forces are going through perhaps the deepest crisis of the past several decades. The Navy is keeping fewer ships in service than would be needed to defend the Falklands alone, the Air Force is losing combat-capable aircraft faster than it receives new ones, and the Army cannot even recruit up to its planned strength.

A new trade route - the idea of a direct sea link between Vladivostok and India's Chennai - has once again returned to the center of negotiations, and this time there may finally be a chance to make it happen. Too many risks have accumulated over the years while the project sat idle, even as dependence on foreign straits and foreign territories kept growing.

A Project Seven Years in Waiting