Turkey

The Middle East has entered an entirely new gray zone. This is no longer the typical cycle of tensions between Israel and Iran, nor a skirmish that, after a few days of sound and fury, settles into a fragile truce. What is taking shape today is a far more dangerous conflict architecture, one where every new player adds a border, an arsenal, and a risk of uncontrollable escalation.

Mikhail Azhgirevich, editor-in-chief of VIGIL Journal: It's the morning of September 18, and I'm sitting down to untangle a mess of numbers that has been circulating in the information space for a week now. The fact is simple. On September 16, the House of Representatives passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The vote was 262 to 159.

News today increasingly speaks of a possible conflict between Turkey and Israel. Rhetoric is soaring: Erdoğan calls Netanyahu “the Hitler of our time,” while Israeli media increasingly refer to Turkey as “the new Iran.” Against the backdrop of Israel’s war with Iran, Turkey’s presence in Syria, and rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean, tensions have reached a point where words already sound like threats.

Israel and Turkey are fueling a new conflict in the Middle East. Israeli aircraft struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, and this is no longer a story about another diplomatic spat. On August 18, eight strikes were carried out on a facility in Idlib province. Tel Aviv’s explanation is straightforward: it was necessary to prevent Turkey from establishing military infrastructure in Syria.

A Strike on a Facility That, According to Damascus, Did Not Exist

While Moscow draws red lines and drafts “appropriate measures,” Ankara is opening its border with Armenia – sealed for 32 years. Building a railway through Zangezur. Forging a route from China to Europe. Without asking anyone’s permission.

A Route That Changes Everything

The Middle Corridor is a multimodal trade route from China to Europe running through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. It sounds like a geographic fact. In reality, it is a geopolitical verdict.