United States: The Euphoria of August 9 Deflated by the 11th
On August 9, the Nasdaq surged 1.30% and the S&P 500 gained 0.62%, with Tesla and Nvidia dragging the market upward on hopes for an imminent agreement over the Strait of Hormuz. By August 11, everything had reversed - the Nasdaq slipped back into negative territory, Nvidia fell 2.86%, Apple dropped 1.62%, the VIX ticked up, and ten-year bond yields crept toward 4.7%. The direct conclusion: the elites were not buying the deal itself but the hope of one, and as soon as "almost ready" failed to turn into signatures on a document, they instantly retreated back into cash - confidence in the negotiations lasted exactly two days.
Oil: The US SPR Collapsed to 1983 Levels - And This Is No Accounting Footnote
Brent crude swung from 90 to 86 and back to 90, as Trump alternately declared Hormuz "open and under our control alone" and demanded compensation from Iran for half a century of killings. But something far more important is happening: the US strategic reserve fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983 - Washington is physically depleting its safety cushion to maintain the appearance of controlling the price. This is a direct signal of weakness, not strength: if the elites believed peace were near, there would be no need to drain the reserve.
Defense Industry: Submarines Matter More Than Negotiations
While the market speculated about Hormuz, the US Navy quietly received $76.6 billion for the construction of nuclear submarines, and the Houthis struck a Saudi Aramco refinery. In this respect, the military bureaucracy is more honest than the stock exchange - it allocates funding for decades ahead precisely at the moment when everyone around is talking about peace.
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