Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 20, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 20 апреля 2026!

Trump Wants a Deal — Iran Won’t Surrender, Pakistan Passes Notes

Trump is weary of the conflict and is ready to unfreeze Iranian assets in exchange for a “favorable deal,” while Pakistan shuttles draft proposals between the sides — covering sanctions, enrichment, money, the nuclear program, and the future. Iran’s President Pezeshkian responded curtly: “Iranians do not bow to force.” American signals, he said, “carry the bitter message of capitulation,” and the deep historical distrust of the United States remains intact. Meanwhile, Trump is discussing the seizure of Kharg Island as a third-phase option — either new strikes or peace

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 19, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 19 апреля 2026!

Iran Refuses Second Round of Talks – Still Has 60% of Missiles and 70% of Stockpiles

Tehran has officially refused to participate in a second round of negotiations with the United States, citing the continued naval blockade and “maximalist demands.” Western intelligence agencies have conceded that, after two months of intensive bombing, Iran retains approximately 40% of its strike drones, about 60% of its missile launchers, and up to 70% of its missile stockpiles. In response, Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s power plants and bridges, calling it an “honor” and chiding previous administrations for failing to do so

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 18, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 18 апреля 2026!

Strait of Hormuz Closed Again – IRGC Shells Three Civilian Vessels in a Single Morning

Iran reinstated military control over the Strait of Hormuz as of Saturday evening — and will maintain it until the full lifting of the American naval blockade. In one morning alone, the IRGC attacked at least three civilian vessels: two tankers came under gunfire while attempting to transit the strait; a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman; and one tanker was approached by artillery boats with no prior warning over VHF radio. The Supreme Leader has promised "new

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 17, 2026!

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 17 апреля 2026!

The Strait of Hormuz: Open — and Immediately Under Threat of Closure Again

Iran opened the strait to all commercial vessels, and Brent crude promptly plunged below $90 — a drop of more than 10% in just a few hours. Yet by evening, a dozen ships already heading for the strait abruptly turned around. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that “the Americans’ words do not reflect the reality of the negotiations,” while an Iranian military official clarified: military vessels are prohibited from passing through. Tehran has warned it will close the strait again if the U.S. continues its naval blockade of

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 31, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 31 марта 2026!

Trump está listo para retirarse de Irán sin cerrar el estrecho de Ormuz

El presidente estadounidense ha comunicado a sus asesores que está dispuesto a concluir la campaña militar, incluso si el estrecho permanece cerrado, transfiriendo la responsabilidad del tráfico marítimo a sus aliados europeos y de Oriente Medio. Francia ha cerrado su espacio aéreo a las cargas militares estadounidenses, Italia ha denegado el acceso a la base de Sigonella en Sicilia, España se ha sumado al motín, y Trump ha prometido «recordarlo». Mientras tanto, Netanyahu ha propuesto tender oleoductos desde el Golfo Pérsico a través de Israel hasta el

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 30, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 30 марта 2026!

Iran Withdraws from the NPT – And Makes the Strait of Hormuz Toll-Based for Good

Tehran has announced its intention to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, dismissing the 15-point American plan as “unfounded and excessive,” while parliament prepares legislation to make passage through the Strait of Hormuz permanently toll-based. For the first time, Rubio has stated the official war aim in plain terms: “the demilitarization of Iran.” Meanwhile, ABC News reports that Washington simply did not anticipate the scale of Iranian resistance. Announcing the war aim a month after hostilities began is not strategy—it is