WEEKLY LIE REVIEW by Mikhail Azhgirevich
"We Will Announce This": How the Witkoff and Kushner Visit Became Diplomacy's Longest Running Joke
The week of July 27 to August 1, 2026 has finally turned the "imminent visit" of American negotiators to Moscow into a joke that has become too awkward to tell aloud. The date has now been promised for the third time in a month. And for the third time, without an actual date.
The Fact: What Happened
Peskov once again stated that the Kremlin "will provide additional information" about the arrival of Witkoff and Kushner, a formulation that was already heard in June, then in
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for July 30, 2026
Jordanians demand withdrawal of US troops — rare open protest in the kingdom
Hundreds of politicians and lawyers have signed a letter opposing the presence of American troops, which they say drags the country into war and hurts tourism. The government is holding on to $1.65 billion in aid, but the street is already discontented.
Explosion of unidentified object in Poland
A crater 10 meters in diameter and debris were discovered near Tarnawa Kolonia; fighter jets were scrambled. Another unexplained incident on NATO's border.
Russia extends fuel export ban until January 31, 2027
The new temporary ban covers gasoline, diesel
Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: July 29–30, Iran Fires Again, the Fed Holds Its Nerve
US Markets: Indices Hit After Iranian Attack and Hawkish Fed
On July 29, the Dow plunged 2.18% to 51,594, the S&P 500 lost 1.51%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.74%, entering correction territory, after Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces and the Federal Reserve, now led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.50–3.75% with a hawkish tone. The direct takeaway is that elites are simultaneously processing military shock and disappointment over the absence of monetary easing. A double negative rarely lines up in timing like this, and such synchronicity signals the buildup of systemic risk rather than a
Geopolitical digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for July 29, 2026
US and France Helped Ukraine Map Russian Air Defenses - FT
Intelligence from Washington and Paris was used to identify air defense positions and select drone routes deep into Russian territory. Western intelligence involvement is no longer hidden in the shadows - it is now a confirmed fact.
IRGC: There Was No Ceasefire, the US Stopped Strikes Unilaterally
Iran stated that no negotiations took place, and that the halt in strikes was a unilateral US decision within the framework of Tehran's "existential war." Each side is writing its own version of the ceasefire.
Finland to Cut Communication Links with Russia
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich, July 28, 2026
Houthis Knock Out Saudi Refinery in Jizan
Saudi Aramco has suspended operations at a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery after a Houthi strike damaged the integrated gasification system and tank farm. Restart is planned only by the end of August. The Houthis have reached Saudi oil refining — something that seemed untouchable just yesterday.
Iraq Arrests Groups Accused of Working for Ukraine and Attacking Saudi Oil Facilities
Iraq's national security adviser, Qasim al-Araji, stated that those detained confessed to working for Ukraine and involvement in attacks on the country's territory. Meanwhile, evidence has emerged suggesting the strike on Saudi oil facilities may have
Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: July 27–28, Iran Truce Resets Risk Appetite
US Markets: Stocks Rise, But Tech Stumbles
On July 27, the Dow jumped 0.5% to 51,947, while futures surged as much as 580 points in the morning following the announcement of a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran. At the same time, the Nasdaq continued to slide on a sell-off in tech, chip, and memory stocks amid the listing of Chinese manufacturer CXMT on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The direct takeaway: elites are ready to immediately buy back risk on news of de-escalation, but are simultaneously taking profits in the overvalued AI segment, where real competition from China
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 27, 2026
Putin Sets Standing Strength of Russian Armed Forces at 2.426 Million
According to the decree, the standing strength of Russia's Armed Forces has been fixed at 2.426 million personnel, of whom 1.535 million are servicemen. For comparison, in 1989 the strength of the Soviet Armed Forces stood at 5.35 million — a difference of nearly 2.2 times that illustrates the scale of the military's transformation over the past decades. Today's army is far more compact than its Soviet predecessor, but technologically incomparable to it — sheer numbers have long ceased to be the key parameter.
Pashinyan Floats Referendum on Armenia's
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 23, 2026
Brent Back to $100 — Houthis Rattle the Oil Market
The Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers, Encelia and Layla, with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones after the vessels violated the group's declared naval blockade in the Red Sea; a major fire broke out on one of the ships. Brent crude gained more than 8.5% over the week, approaching $105-110 per barrel, while spare capacity at both OPEC and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down to 40-year lows. The Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have simultaneously turned into minefields — the market is reacting with
Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: July 20–23 — Chips Pull the Market Out from Under Oil's Pressure
July 20–21: Middle East Escalation Weighs on Risk
On July 20, the Dow fell 0.6% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.2%, with eight of the index's 11 sectors closing in the red — healthcare and industrials each lost more than a percentage point amid a fresh flare-up of war in the Middle East and oil climbing above $90 a barrel for Brent. The direct takeaway: elites price in risk to the real economy at the slightest escalation of the conflict, and confidence in industrials remains fragile, sustained by volume rather than conviction.
July 21–22: Chips Override Geopolitics
Just a day
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich, July 22, 2026
Russia-US: Lavrov and Rubio to Meet on July 23 — Moscow's Tough but Diplomatic Stance
A meeting between the heads of Russian and American diplomacy has been agreed upon. According to insider assessments, Moscow is set on a principled but restrained tone, while anticipating yet another attempt at deception from Washington. Knowing the rules of the game in advance is already half the victory in diplomatic poker.
EU: Brussels Struggles to Assemble 21st Sanctions Package — Von der Leyen and Kallas Off the Radar
Following talks in Baku between Russia and Germany, Brussels, according to available data, has stalled in

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