Scarborough back in the crosshairs: Beijing openly warns Manila
On August 7-8, the People's Liberation Army conducted coordinated naval and air exercises near Scarborough Shoal, and China's Ministry of National Defense directly called them a "serious warning" to the Philippines. Here's how I see it: the dispute has been escalating for a third consecutive month, water cannons and patrols have already become routine, and while this once looked like a demonstration of force, it increasingly resembles groundwork for a harsher scenario should Manila fail to back down.
Beijing builds a wall against brain drain in tech
This week it became known that starting September 15, China is introducing new border-crossing rules requiring citizens to explain their reason for leaving the country, and those connected to technology export controls may not be allowed to leave at all. To me, this is a symptom of a different order than the military drills — Beijing is acknowledging that the technological race with the United States now outweighs freedom of movement even for its own highly skilled personnel, and this changes the calculus for any business that keeps specialists or partners in China.
Taiwan ramps up defense while Beijing plays for rapprochement through a forum
Taiwan announced it will increase defense spending for 2027 by 16%, surpassing $31 billion for the first time, and in those very same days a forum of experts from both sides of the strait was held in Wuxi, where calls for "national reunification" were voiced. There's an intriguing contrast here: Taipei is arming itself in case of a forceful scenario, while Beijing simultaneously pushes a soft line through academic and public channels — in other words, it is playing on two boards at once, giving no rest either to its own supporters of rapprochement or to its opponents.
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