Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for August 5, 2026
Russia/Ukraine: Massive Russian strike on Kyiv — air defense failed to down a single ballistic missile
According to Ukrainian data, 17 people were killed and dozens injured; the strikes hit logistics and storage facilities linked to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The attack was one of the most powerful in recent memory — the city's defenses proved helpless.
United States/Ukraine: Trump refuses Zelensky's request for Patriot missiles
The reason cited is a shortage of interceptors due to the US military campaign against Iran. The Middle East war is directly undermining Kyiv's ability to defend itself.
United States/Iran: US quietly lifts sanctions
Market Overview by Mikhail Azhgirevich: August 3–5, Elites Bought Back Hormuz Before It Actually Opened
United States: market storms record highs on pure optimism
On August 4, the Dow closed above 54,000 for the first time in history, surging 1.71%, the S&P 500 set a new record, gaining 1.79% and closing at 7,737, and the Nasdaq rose 2.59% on a rebound in tech and materials. The formal trigger is diplomatic hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; the real conclusion is far more cynical: elites are not buying the fact of peace but the rumor of peace. The market has already priced in a deal that has not even been struck yet, meaning
Geopolitical Digest from Mikhail Azhgirevich, August 4, 2026
US Issues Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz
Bloomberg reports that Tehran has been given until Tuesday: either an agreement to keep the strait open or "devastating strikes." This marks a direct escalation in the world's most sensitive energy chokepoint.
Saudi Aramco Posts Sharp Profit Growth
The company's net profit rose 44% to $32.7 billion amid surging oil prices. War and expensive oil are once again working in favor of the region's largest exporter.
Houthis Blow Up Tanker in Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The attack hit an Indian-flagged tanker carrying oil from Saudi Arabia. The maritime conflict around the Red
WEEKLY LIE REVIEW by Mikhail Azhgirevich
"We Will Announce This": How the Witkoff and Kushner Visit Became Diplomacy's Longest Running Joke
The week of July 27 to August 1, 2026 has finally turned the "imminent visit" of American negotiators to Moscow into a joke that has become too awkward to tell aloud. The date has now been promised for the third time in a month. And for the third time, without an actual date.
The Fact: What Happened
Peskov once again stated that the Kremlin "will provide additional information" about the arrival of Witkoff and Kushner, a formulation that was already heard in June, then in
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for July 30, 2026
Jordanians demand withdrawal of US troops — rare open protest in the kingdom
Hundreds of politicians and lawyers have signed a letter opposing the presence of American troops, which they say drags the country into war and hurts tourism. The government is holding on to $1.65 billion in aid, but the street is already discontented.
Explosion of unidentified object in Poland
A crater 10 meters in diameter and debris were discovered near Tarnawa Kolonia; fighter jets were scrambled. Another unexplained incident on NATO's border.
Russia extends fuel export ban until January 31, 2027
The new temporary ban covers gasoline, diesel
Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: July 29–30, Iran Fires Again, the Fed Holds Its Nerve
US Markets: Indices Hit After Iranian Attack and Hawkish Fed
On July 29, the Dow plunged 2.18% to 51,594, the S&P 500 lost 1.51%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.74%, entering correction territory, after Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces and the Federal Reserve, now led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.50–3.75% with a hawkish tone. The direct takeaway is that elites are simultaneously processing military shock and disappointment over the absence of monetary easing. A double negative rarely lines up in timing like this, and such synchronicity signals the buildup of systemic risk rather than a
Geopolitical digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for July 29, 2026
US and France Helped Ukraine Map Russian Air Defenses - FT
Intelligence from Washington and Paris was used to identify air defense positions and select drone routes deep into Russian territory. Western intelligence involvement is no longer hidden in the shadows - it is now a confirmed fact.
IRGC: There Was No Ceasefire, the US Stopped Strikes Unilaterally
Iran stated that no negotiations took place, and that the halt in strikes was a unilateral US decision within the framework of Tehran's "existential war." Each side is writing its own version of the ceasefire.
Finland to Cut Communication Links with Russia
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich, July 28, 2026
Houthis Knock Out Saudi Refinery in Jizan
Saudi Aramco has suspended operations at a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery after a Houthi strike damaged the integrated gasification system and tank farm. Restart is planned only by the end of August. The Houthis have reached Saudi oil refining — something that seemed untouchable just yesterday.
Iraq Arrests Groups Accused of Working for Ukraine and Attacking Saudi Oil Facilities
Iraq's national security adviser, Qasim al-Araji, stated that those detained confessed to working for Ukraine and involvement in attacks on the country's territory. Meanwhile, evidence has emerged suggesting the strike on Saudi oil facilities may have
Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: July 27–28, Iran Truce Resets Risk Appetite
US Markets: Stocks Rise, But Tech Stumbles
On July 27, the Dow jumped 0.5% to 51,947, while futures surged as much as 580 points in the morning following the announcement of a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran. At the same time, the Nasdaq continued to slide on a sell-off in tech, chip, and memory stocks amid the listing of Chinese manufacturer CXMT on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The direct takeaway: elites are ready to immediately buy back risk on news of de-escalation, but are simultaneously taking profits in the overvalued AI segment, where real competition from China
Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 27, 2026
Putin Sets Standing Strength of Russian Armed Forces at 2.426 Million
According to the decree, the standing strength of Russia's Armed Forces has been fixed at 2.426 million personnel, of whom 1.535 million are servicemen. For comparison, in 1989 the strength of the Soviet Armed Forces stood at 5.35 million — a difference of nearly 2.2 times that illustrates the scale of the military's transformation over the past decades. Today's army is far more compact than its Soviet predecessor, but technologically incomparable to it — sheer numbers have long ceased to be the key parameter.
Pashinyan Floats Referendum on Armenia's

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