Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: September 21–22, Markets Buy Hope for a Trump-Iran Meeting at the UN

US: Nasdaq Hits a Record Because Trump Is Heading to New York

On September 21, the Nasdaq surged 2.3% to a record close of 27,122, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, coming within 0.4% of its all-time high, and the Dow rose 0.7% - all against a backdrop of retreating oil prices and bond yields, which had weighed on the market throughout the previous week following the Fed's first rate hike in three years. The direct takeaway: the elites are not buying a fact of peace, but the mere possibility that Trump will meet his Iranian counterpart at the UN General Assembly. Once again, the market is voting for hope rather than a signed document, and this is exactly the same pattern that has played out ten times already this year.

Oil: Down 4.25% in a Single Day - Panic Among Retreating Speculators

Brent pulled back from last week's highs to 100-102 dollars, while WTI plunged 4.25% to 92, the sharpest one-day drop in 11 days, driven precisely by rumors of a possible breakthrough in talks held on the sidelines of the UN session. This is not an acknowledgment of peace - it is a classic sell-off of an overbought war premium. The elites who drove oil higher a week ago on the rate hike and escalating tensions are now booking profits at the same speed at the first hint of diplomacy, demonstrating that belief in a protracted war remains tactical rather than final.

Defense Sector: Defense Stocks Hold Their Gains Even as Oil Falls

AeroVironment, BAE Systems, and Elbit Systems gained between 0.6% and 1.2% on September 21 specifically, at a time when oil and the rest of the risk market were simultaneously retreating from their war-driven highs. The correlation is telling: while oil speculators flee the geopolitical premium at the first rumor of peace, defense capital stays put. This means that the elites invested in actual weapons production do not believe in a swift end to the conflict, even at the peak of the rest of the market's diplomatic optimism.

Asset Value: Why a Balance-Sheet Figure Is Neither a Verdict nor a Celebration

22 September, 2026

India: Gains on Softer Oil, But Without Enthusiasm in Market Breadth

The Sensex jumped 564 points and the Nifty climbed back above 23,400 amid cheaper oil and gains in pharma, while midcap and smallcap stocks continued to weaken and overall market breadth remained negative. This means Indian elites are locally buying relief on oil, but are not yet ready to believe in the durability of this scenario - capital remains selective rather than broad-based.