US: The AI Engine Keeps Running Despite the War
On July 10, the Dow rose 0.3% to 52,478, the Nasdaq added 1.3% on strong earnings from Meta and Micron, and the S&P 500 closed near an all-time high thanks to SK Hynix's blockbuster Nasdaq debut. The direct takeaway: elites continue holding capital in the tech segment even during the war in the Middle East, while the real economy is losing confidence — of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, nine closed in negative territory, with only technology and energy staying in the green.
Oil: A Sharp Upward Reversal Breaks the De-Escalation Scenario
After falling to $76 per barrel, Brent unexpectedly jumped to $78.9, with a two-day gain exceeding 4%, despite the continuation of hostilities in the Middle East. This is a direct signal that elites are no longer pricing in a swift fading of the conflict — the geopolitical premium is returning to oil, and the bet is shifting toward a protracted war rather than a short-term one.
Defense Industry: Selective Trust, Not Across-the-Board Growth
European defense stocks took a hit this week: Rheinmetall dropped nearly 17% on news of Germany's possible withdrawal from the F126 frigate program in favor of cheaper vessels, while Hensoldt, Renk, Saab, and Leonardo also declined. The direct connection: elites are beginning to doubt that Europe's announced military budgets will actually translate into contracts, with trust shifting away from European contractors toward American plays and Asian chips for defense technologies.
The Big Picture: Stocks and Oil Diverge in Risk Assessment
While US stocks rose on expectations of rate cuts and strong AI earnings, oil separately signaled a real escalation of the conflict. This divergence is rare and indicates that part of the elite is hedging through commodities, rather than relying solely on the stock market as a geopolitical indicator.
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