UN revises the projection of global population


NEW YORK, UNITED STATES (13/JUN/2013). - The world population will reach 10 000 900 million in 2100, against the current seven thousand 200 million, mainly due to the high birth rate in the poorest countries of Africa, announced at the UN Thursday as it released new projections.

The new estimate of global population by 2100 indicates an increase of 800 million compared with the previous figure provided by the UN two years ago, said on Thursday the director of the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the organization John Wilmoth.

"The world’s population projections have been revised upwards. For example for 2050 from nine thousand three hundred to nine thousand six hundred million. For 2100, from 10 000 100 million to 10 000 900 million. The majority of these changes are due to revisions in our estimates of current fertility" said Wilmoth in a press conference in New York.

The world population growth will have its origin in the high birth rate in the world's poorest regions, according to the report entitled "World Population Prospects, 2012 revision."

The population of developing countries will increase from five thousand 900 million in 2013 to eight thousand 200 million in 2050 and nine thousand 600 million in 2100. In Africa alone the population will increase from one thousand 100 million to four thousand 200 million in 2100.

In contrast, the population of the more developed regions of the world will not change much, from one thousand 250 millions this year to about a thousand 280 million in 2100.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the population will reach just over 737 260 000 people by 2100, compared with the current 613 210 000 said François Pelletier, head of the section of population estimates and projections at the UN.

The region would reach 780.68 million in 2050, date from which they begin to experience a fall, driven mainly by the decline of the population in Brazil.

In effect, the projections for the region show large differences by country, Guatemala with the biggest growth and Cuba, which will lead the group of nations that suffer a sharp decline.

In Guatemala the population will triple, from 15.4 million today to 46.4 in 2100. In Honduras will double from eight to 15.6 million inhabitants.

The same is expected for Bolivia (from 10.6 to 19.5 million), Panama (3.8 to 6.2 million) and Paraguay (6.8 to 11.8 million).

Mexico would rise from its current 122.3 million to 139.8 million the end of the century and Venezuela will reach 42.7 million, against 30.4 million of today.

Instead, Brazil will see a decline in their population without amending birth rate, from 200 million today to 194.5 million in 2100, after a peak of 231 million in 2050.

The fall, in terms of percentage of the population will be most impressive in Cuba, which will go from 11.2 million in 2013 to just 5.45 million in 2100.

In Europe, the population will decline by 14 percents, with sharp falls in Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Serbia.

India will overtake China as the most populated country in 2028, with a thousand 450 million. In 2100 with one thousand 500 million Indians compared to one thousand 100 million in China.

Also a strong growth in the population is expected in Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Uganda and Niger.

The report underlines the world’s population’s rapid age advance: the number of people over 60 will increase from 841 million today to two billion in 2050 and about three billion in 2100.