Market Review by Mikhail Azhgirevich: July 29–30, Iran Fires Again, the Fed Holds Its Nerve

US Markets: Indices Hit After Iranian Attack and Hawkish Fed

On July 29, the Dow plunged 2.18% to 51,594, the S&P 500 lost 1.51%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.74%, entering correction territory, after Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces and the Federal Reserve, now led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.50–3.75% with a hawkish tone. The direct takeaway is that elites are simultaneously processing military shock and disappointment over the absence of monetary easing. A double negative rarely lines up in timing like this, and such synchronicity signals the buildup of systemic risk rather than a one-off panic.

Oil: The War Premium Returns Sharply and Fast

Brent jumped more than 4% back to $87–90, and WTI climbed to $82–84, following Iran's missile strike and joint retaliatory strikes by the US and Saudi Arabia on pro-Iranian formations in Iraq, while drones attacked Saudi oil infrastructure for a second consecutive day. The connection is direct: elites no longer believe in a pause as a stable truce, and the oil market is now pricing in a second wave of direct military confrontation rather than de-escalation.

Defense: Orders Are Growing Faster Than Trust in Peace Is Fading

Rheinmetall reported revenue growth of 69% year-on-year to 3.29 billion euros and an operating profit that more than doubled, with shares surging 6–7% in Frankfurt, as demand for military equipment remains high precisely amid heightened geopolitical tension. The direct conclusion is that elites are not merely speculatively driving up defense stocks on headlines but are seeing this reflected in real contracts and revenue. The bet on prolonged rearmament is being confirmed fundamentally, not just by market sentiment.

NATO's Article Five, Which No Longer Works

30 July, 2026

Technology: AI Euphoria Is Cooling Faster Than Expected

At the same time, shares of Micron and other chipmakers fell for a fourth straight session, while investors nervously await earnings from Microsoft and Meta, whose record AI capital expenditure plans stand at $190 billion and $145 billion, respectively. This means that a segment of elites is, for the first time, seriously questioning the payoff on AI investment at precisely the moment when capital is needed more in defensive and commodity assets, making the coming weeks a pivotal point for reassessing large capital's priorities.