United States: The Market Buys Back Inflation, Ignoring the Oil Shock
On August 12, the S&P 500 set a new record at 7,748, the Nasdaq gained nearly 1% on earnings from CoreWeave and Super Micro, and July inflation came in exactly at forecast - 3.4% year-on-year - allowing the market to exhale. The direct conclusion: the elites are holding only one scenario in mind - the Fed will not raise rates - while everything else, including the war in the Middle East, is treated as background noise as long as it doesn't hit inflation directly.
Oil: The "Geopolitical Premium" Is a Euphemism for Fear of a New War
Brent jumped over the week from 83 to nearly 90 dollars, up 5% in two days, with WTI approaching 84. The market is literally pricing back in the war it had written off just a week earlier amid talk of an imminent deal over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump demanded compensation from Iran for American deaths; Iran refuses to sign on to this, meaning there will be no deal - and oil said so honestly, without the stock market's illusions, first.
Defense Industry: Europe Is Charging Up for Years, America Is Burning Through Strategic Missile Stockpiles
Barclays and RBC simultaneously upgraded ratings on Rheinmetall, Thales, and Leonardo to "outperform" - analysts are openly saying that Europe's rearmament is not a flash in the pan but a new, long cycle. At the same time, it emerged that the war with Iran is depleting U.S. strategic missile stockpiles - which explains why NATO is placing 50 billion dollars in weapons orders all at once: the elites are no longer preparing for a possible war, they are patching the holes left by the one already underway.
The Ruble Weakens Despite Expensive Oil
The Russian currency continues to weaken even with Brent near 90 - a classic sign that local elites do not believe oil's rise will convert into a stable inflow of capital. Money is watching not the barrel price but the sanctions, and the fact that the deal over Hormuz has definitively fallen through.
.png){kind=icon}
.png){kind=icon}
.png)
.png){kind=icon}
