Market Overview by Mikhail Azhgirevich: August 3–5, Elites Bought Back Hormuz Before It Actually Opened

United States: market storms record highs on pure optimism

On August 4, the Dow closed above 54,000 for the first time in history, surging 1.71%, the S&P 500 set a new record, gaining 1.79% and closing at 7,737, and the Nasdaq rose 2.59% on a rebound in tech and materials. The formal trigger is diplomatic hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; the real conclusion is far more cynical: elites are not buying the fact of peace but the rumor of peace. The market has already priced in a deal that has not even been struck yet, meaning big capital is betting that the information noise matters more than an actual truce.

Oil: a 6% collapse is not de-escalation, it's profit-taking

Brent crude plunged from 83.7 to 78.7 dollars over the course of August 4–5, while WTI collapsed nearly 6% to 75.2, trading off the same hopes surrounding Hormuz. Yet just the day before, on August 3, oil was still holding near 90 amid continuing strikes and ongoing discussions in Washington of new sanctions against Iran. The connection is direct, with no illusions: elites are not pricing in an end to the war, they are simply betting on a brief pause and simultaneously locking in profits on an overbought position. The geopolitical premium hasn't gone anywhere, it has merely been temporarily frozen.

Defense industry: while the market celebrates, the Pentagon prepares a new strike

Amid the stock rally, Washington is discussing strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure in the coming days to force Tehran into capitulation on American terms. This is a direct and blunt signal: the elites driving the indices up on "hopes" are simultaneously preparing military escalation. Within this logic, the defense sector remains a structural bet rather than a speculative one, the stock market is living on rosy dreams while real politics is preparing a new round of bombings.

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5 August, 2026

Russia: the ruble weakens, the Central Bank holds its pause

The Moscow Exchange index closed the week up at 2,226 points, but the ruble weakened against both the yuan and the dollar, and on August 5 the Central Bank is due to announce its regular decision on the key interest rate. The conclusion is simple: the local market is clinging to the oil rebound, but currency weakness shows that even Russia's own elites are not fully prepared to bet on the sustainability of this rally.