Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 1, 2026

Russia begins importing gasoline from India as shortage officially acknowledged
Russia has started seaborne gasoline shipments from India to cover shortfalls following drone strikes on refineries — at least 60,000 tons have already been dispatched, with import plans reaching up to 400,000 tons per month from various countries, including Belarus. A country ranking fifth in the world for oil production is buying gasoline from India — and this is not a figure of speech.

Matviyenko urges calm, Novak promises balance
Matviyenko called for not exaggerating the fuel situation, acknowledging it as "difficult," while Novak promised prices would even out "as the market becomes saturated." The statements came amid a state of emergency in Crimea, fuel rationing in six regions, and gasoline purchases abroad. Don't dramatize it — while simultaneously buying gasoline from India.

Oil exports hit record highs, but profits decline
Russian oil shipments in June reached their highest level since 2022 — 4.63 million barrels per day, flowing mainly to China and India. Urals crude is trading below $70, with Russian grades losing nearly 20% since early June — falling faster than Brent. Selling more oil, earning less — the classic paradox of a commodity-dependent economy.

Chaos at EU borders — planes flying half-empty
Airlines have warned von der Leyen that new border checks are creating queues of up to five hours, flights are departing half-full, and tourists are reconsidering trips to Europe. The EU tightens borders for security and takes a hit to its own tourism industry.

Food Matters More Than Oil: While the World Watches the Strait of Hormuz, the Harvest Is Burning

Lukashenko in Beijing, Wang Yi in Sweden and Finland
Right after Lukashenko's Minsk–Valdai–Beijing route, China's foreign ministry sent Wang Yi to Sweden and Finland — countries that just lifted a 40-year ban on storing nuclear weapons on their soil. A visit to Helsinki right after the end of its non-nuclear status is hardly a coincidence.

Ukrainian FP-9 missile intercepted — Kyiv hit by "jet-powered Geraniums"
Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed the interception of a ballistic missile, reportedly a test of Ukraine's FP-9. In response, Kyiv was struck by upgraded "Geran" drones — a new round of escalation in long-range weapons. Jet-powered Geraniums: the escalation got an upgrade, and so did its name.

Zelensky abruptly leaves Ireland after terrorist arrest in Monaco
Following the detention of a Ukrainian national linked to the Monaco terrorist attack, Zelensky cut short his visit to Ireland, citing preparations for a Russian missile strike — a reason that never previously stopped his travels. Usually missile strikes don't disrupt his plans. This time, apparently, they did.

🇪Estonia offers to help Ukraine strike St. Petersburg
Madis Roll, national security adviser to Estonia's president, stated Tallinn's readiness to help Ukraine target St. Petersburg — a phrasing unthinkable in official NATO language just a year ago. The rhetorical brakes are now fully off.

Musk hints at Starlink degradation in Ukraine
Musk stated that Starlink connection quality in Ukraine will soon deteriorate sharply, citing "concerns about the satellites." Musk's concern for his satellites arises at precisely the moment it's inconvenient for Kyiv.