Sharp Escalation with Iran — Strikes on Tankers, Attacks on U.S. Air Bases
On September 9, the United States carried out missile strikes on two Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island and in the Jask area, with the Pentagon reporting the destruction of five Iranian vessels within 24 hours. The IRGC retaliated by launching at least 20 missiles at American air bases in Jordan and announced the capture of an advanced American underwater drone, the Dive-LD, in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Treasury immediately imposed sanctions on 27 Iranian airlines and 36 affiliated individuals. Meanwhile, on September 4, Trump publicly declared, "We have effectively taken control of Iran," calling the six-month conflict "a minor thing, nothing serious" — the gap between the White House's rhetoric and the actual state of hostilities is now perhaps the widest it has been throughout the entire conflict.
Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow and Kyiv — No Breakthrough, but the Trilateral Format Remains on the Table
On September 5-6, Trump's special envoys held a round of talks first in the Kremlin, then in Kyiv, with the two sides agreeing to a three-day ceasefire on strikes against capital cities. No breakthrough occurred — the core disagreements, the territorial question and security guarantees, remain unresolved. The American side stated plans to resume the trilateral format after the State Duma elections on September 20. In parallel, the sanctions bill against Russia is stalled in the House of Representatives over concerns about tariffs and, according to Bloomberg, will most likely be postponed until at least the November U.S. elections. For those planning business with an eye on sanctions risk, this window of uncertainty is being artificially extended by the domestic political calendar.
The U.S. Faces a Fuel Shortage — Ukraine Blamed for Rising Diesel Prices
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright blamed Ukraine for record-high diesel prices within the United States itself, as fuel reserves have fallen below their five-year minimum. The Hormuz crisis and the strikes on Iranian tankers are hitting the domestic energy market directly — geopolitics in the Middle East is translating into concrete price pressure at American gas pumps and, correspondingly, into logistics costs for any business dependent on fuel.
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