Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — July 9, 2026

Lavrov: Trust in the West Has Been Completely Exhausted — Moscow Receives an Ultimatum
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that the "reserve of goodwill and hope" for negotiations with the West has been "completely exhausted," after a list of five demands was transmitted to Moscow via the U.S. Embassy — an immediate ceasefire, a freeze of the line of contact, an "all for all" prisoner exchange, the handover of the bodies of the dead, and direct Moscow-Kyiv negotiations without preconditions. The deadline for consideration is the end of July, while Kyiv is simultaneously stockpiling drones and missiles to intensify strikes. The ultimatum was issued with the calculation that the Kremlin will get bogged down in negotiations while NATO finishes off the logistics of the Russian Armed Forces and the shadow fleet — a harsh calculation on both sides.

Iran Publicly Rejects Talks with Witkoff and Kushner in Doha
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi accused the American delegation of trying "to deceive Iran the way they deceived the Russians," de facto burying the diplomatic track after the failure of the truce. Pakistan also withdrew from the process, concluding that the U.S. and Israel are merely stalling for time before new strikes. "Donald the Peacemaker" has been definitively written off — by the very hands of those he tried to pacify.

Russia's Budget Deficit Grows 2.5 Times — Oil and Gas Revenues Fall 23%
The federal budget deficit for the first half of the year amounted to 5.73 trillion rubles (2.5% of GDP) — almost 2.5 times higher than last year's figure. Oil and gas revenues fell by 22.7% to 3.66 trillion rubles, with the mineral extraction tax (MET) in June declining to 968.6 billion rubles across both the oil and gas components. The budget is losing money precisely when the war demands it the most — a classic tightening of the financial vise.

“Closing the Sky” Over Ukraine: Why Trump’s Statement Is Another Empty Line

9 July, 2026

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Refuse to Supply Fuel to Russia — India and China Agree
Baku and Astana rejected requests for gasoline and diesel supplies, fearing rising prices and shortages in their own markets. India agreed to sell gasoline at $1 per liter with delivery, while China authorized its refineries to export gasoline and diesel fuel in July-August "upon buyers' requests." CIS neighbors refused — distant partners agreed, but for money and at a price tag that would once have seemed unthinkable.

Kremlin: Trump's Words About Kyiv's Strikes Deep Into Russia — a "Misconception," Not Escalation
Peskov stated that the Kremlin interprets Trump's statements in support of Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory not as escalation, but as a misconception on the part of the American leadership. At the same time, Peskov rejected the idea of "closing the sky" over Ukraine, calling it precisely what the special military operation is being conducted against — the presence of NATO military forces on Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin prefers to call Trump's words a misconception — likely so as not to acknowledge them as a direct threat.

Deputies to Receive Early Bonuses of 2 Billion Rubles Ahead of Elections
Vedomosti and Kommersant reported plans to pay State Duma deputies early bonuses using saved budget funds — Volodin explained this as necessary to "correct an injustice" and equalize the salaries of deputies and ministers. The decision is being made against the backdrop of a budget deficit of 5.73 trillion rubles and a fuel crisis across the country. Bonuses for deputies ahead of elections, a budget deficit in full swing, and fuel limits in the regions — three facts of a single day that need no commentary.