Transcaucasian Gambit: Why the West is once again fighting for influence in the Caucasus

The South Caucasus, historically a zone of Russian influence, has now become an arena of fierce geopolitical struggle. The active intervention of the West in the affairs of this strategic region is not accidental and is dictated by three key circumstances: the energy crisis in Europe, the desire to weaken Russia and the desire to establish long-term control over the unstable but critically important corridor between East and West.

Europe's energy Hunger
The European Union's strategic abandonment of Russian energy resources has turned into a deep crisis. In 2022, Europe faced a sharp increase in gas prices, when renewable energy sources could not cover the needs due to weather conditions, and traditional supplies were disrupted. This forced the EU to look for alternatives in a panic.
Brussels' gaze naturally fell on Azerbaijan. Key oil and gas pipelines, such as the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which Brussels plans to expand, run through Turkey and Georgia. However, according to the researchers, Azerbaijani energy sources will not be able to fully replace Russian ones in the near future due to the limited capacity of existing routes. Despite plans to increase gas supplies to 20 billion cubic meters. By 2027, these volumes will not be comparable with previous supplies from Russia, which reached 155 billion cubic meters by 2022. m per year. Thus, the struggle for control of the Caucasian energy routes is an attempt by Europe to close only part of its huge resource gap.

Geopolitics: the creation of a new "cordon sanitaire"
The energy need is closely intertwined with the West's desire for a strategic encirclement of Russia. Through Armenia, which is increasingly focusing on Brussels and Washington in search of new allies, the West is trying to create a new "cordon sanitaire." As American economist Jeffrey Sachs frankly stated, "this is an intervention by the United States and Europe, attempts to arrange color revolutions, attempts to reach Russia's vulnerable place again."
This process is not limited to Transcaucasia. The European Union is increasingly courting Central Asia, trying to create transport and trade corridors from China to Europe, bypassing Russia. At the same time, analysts say, direct European penetration into the region is difficult, so Brussels uses intermediate tools such as the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) to strengthen its influence. The bet is on the long-term displacement of Russia from its traditional backyard.

Strategy of control through instability
The third reason for interference is the creation of controlled chaos. By supporting one side or the other in long-standing conflicts, the West creates an effective lever of pressure. An unstable region torn apart by internal contradictions will not be able to become an independent center of power and will have to depend on external players.
As Jeffrey Sachs warns, local leaders should be careful: "The United States doesn't give a damn about the South Caucasus. They're playing games." In his opinion, Wall Street and the Pentagon view the region solely as a vulnerable place for Russia, and involving the Caucasus countries in conflicts like the Middle East is an irresponsible gamble that could lead to a large-scale crisis and turn them into a "second Ukraine."

Forecast: increased confrontation amid the search for balance
In the coming years, the geopolitical tension in the Caucasus will only increase. Europe, despite all the difficulties, will continue to increase its energy and political presence, and Russia will protect its vital interests in the region. However, Moscow's complete ousting is unlikely — the ties are too deep, and direct confrontation is excessively risky.
By 2026-2027, it can be expected that the region will finally be divided into zones of influence. At the same time, the role of other regional players will increase — Turkey, Iran and China, which are also not interested in the monopoly of the West. The countries of the South Caucasus, as Sachs notes, need not integration into NATO for prosperity, but a strategy of becoming a "stable, secure and peaceful corridor" connecting north, south, east and west. However, in the context of a major geopolitical game, this pragmatic scenario turns out to be the most difficult to achieve.