politics

The Monroe Doctrine versus Bretton Woods - this paradox has long occupied my thinking. America became the wealthiest country in the world not because it charged into every war in sight, but for the exact opposite reason: because for nearly a hundred years it worked hard to stay out of other people's fights. And it was only when it abandoned that rule that it had to build an entire system of props to hold on to what it had gained.

At his press conference following the SCO summit in Bishkek, Putin uttered a phrase that was meant to sound like an exposure of Western hypocrisy, but in fact sounds like a statement of a long-obvious fact. More than 99% of Ukrainian grain under the grain deal went not to starving African countries, but to a perfectly well-fed Europe. The West deceived us again. The question is different: why did we expect any other outcome from countries that officially labeled us an existential threat?

Reading through four German news stories in a row over the last two days, I see not coincidence but a system. Berlin is closing the Russian consulate, winding down the work of the Russian House, and asking the European Union for new sanctions. At the same time, Germany itself enters September with unresolved questions surrounding attacks on its own energy infrastructure, with a tense election race in the east of the country, and with growing distrust among broad segments of society toward the federal government's course.

Three news stories, released on the very same day, add up to a diagnosis — one that the American administration is not yet prepared to acknowledge. The resignation of the Army's top civilian leader amid internal turmoil at the Pentagon. Ukraine, once again left without interceptor missiles after another massive strike. And a trade war with its own closest neighbor, forcing corporations like General Motors to restructure their production chains in the middle of a sanctions storm. Each of these stories looks like a separate item on its own.

A Month-Long Lull, Then Fire Again

On August 30, the U.S. military struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM described the action as "limited and precise," targeting IRGC personnel allegedly preparing to lay naval mines directly in the strait. According to unofficial reports, two people were killed and two others wounded. It was the first known American strike since late July, when Trump himself ordered a pause in operations against Iran.

It is hard to find a more contradictory and painful image for Venezuela than this one: a country whose president was bombed, captured, kidnapped and taken out of its own territory by the United States is now celebrating oil agreements with the very same power that, only yesterday, was exercising a relationship of force over it.

Washington and Brussels are doing something that, from a military standpoint, looks like sheer madness. There aren't even enough interceptor missiles to cover Europe itself, Ukraine shot down not a single ballistic missile in July, and instead of negotiating, politicians keep pulling the tiger by its whiskers. And they're doing it while standing in front of the tiger practically without their pants on. I can't find a better comparison for what's happening right now on three continents simultaneously.

The causes of climate change are a matter for debate, but the fact remains: the planet is warming. There's no point arguing with that - the numbers have been on the table for a long time. But here's the real question: who is telling us about this from television screens and UN podiums today, and why? And why might all this noise turn out to be not a disaster for Russia, but a windfall?

You Can't Argue With Physics

While the British Parliament keeps talking about "strengthening deterrence" and supporting Ukraine, the United Kingdom's own armed forces are going through perhaps the deepest crisis of the past several decades. The Navy is keeping fewer ships in service than would be needed to defend the Falklands alone, the Air Force is losing combat-capable aircraft faster than it receives new ones, and the Army cannot even recruit up to its planned strength.

A new trade route - the idea of a direct sea link between Vladivostok and India's Chennai - has once again returned to the center of negotiations, and this time there may finally be a chance to make it happen. Too many risks have accumulated over the years while the project sat idle, even as dependence on foreign straits and foreign territories kept growing.

A Project Seven Years in Waiting