Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for September 8, 2026!

Russia Resumes Strikes on Kyiv After Three-Day Pause

Russia has resumed strikes on Kyiv following a three-day pause. The moratorium was in effect during the visit of Trump's special envoys, Witkoff and Kushner, to Moscow and Kyiv; once it expired, the capital was hit with Zircon missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. The pause for the sake of diplomacy turned out to be a brief respite rather than a prologue to a truce.

Iran Threatens Full Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Claims Seizure of a US Underwater Drone

Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei warned of a blockade in response to new US economic sanctions, while the IRGC reported the seizure of an unmanned underwater vehicle near the entrance to the strait. The escalation in the Persian Gulf continues to drive oil prices higher.

Brent Crude Surges Past $99 a Barrel Amid Iran-US Escalation

Brent crude oil surged past $99 a barrel amid the Iran-US escalation. The November futures contract traded around $97.5 after an intraday peak above $99.4 - the highs are linked to the threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East crisis is becoming the main driver of global energy prices.

Zelensky Expects Meeting With Trump Before End of September

Ukraine's president is counting on a trilateral negotiating format and is pressing for deliveries of Patriot systems - the Kremlin has also not ruled out resuming dialogue. Both sides speak of negotiations while continuing to strike each other in parallel with diplomacy.

Corporate Debt Isn't Poison, But It's Not a Cure-All Either. It's All About Dosage.

8 September, 2026

Ruble Strengthens on Geopolitical Optimism Despite Rising Central Bank Rates

The ruble has strengthened amid geopolitical optimism, despite rising central bank exchange rates. The Russian Central Bank raised the official dollar rate to 86.47 rubles and the euro to 100.5 rubles, but on the exchange the ruble gained against the yuan on news of a negotiating track. The market is reacting more strongly to hopes for diplomacy than to the current escalation.

Russia-Germany Crisis Deepens as EU Prepares New Sanctions Package

The crisis between Russia and Germany has deepened as the EU prepares a new sanctions package. Kallas stated her support for tightening visa rules for Russians and for a package of 1,600 items targeting Russia's military-industrial complex, while Peskov said the Kremlin has not considered a full rupture of relations, but that "Berlin might" take such a step. The diplomatic spiral following the incident in Leipzig is unwinding faster than expected.