Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — May 4, 2026

Iran Strikes U.S. Vessel — Hormuz Fires Again
The Iranian Navy launched two missiles at a U.S. patrol ship near Jask Island, while drones simultaneously targeted an oil refinery in Fujairah. UAE air defenses intercepted three Iranian missiles over its territorial waters. Trump responded predictably: Iran “will be wiped off the face of the earth” if it refuses to reopen the strait. Trump threatens annihilation, Iran keeps firing — a dialogue of the deaf, backed by missiles.

Nord Stream — Zelensky Knew: WSJ Book Rewrites the Story
A new book by a Wall Street Journal correspondent claims that Volodymyr Zelensky personally approved the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, with Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi coordinating the operation alongside political leadership. According to the author, the U.S. quietly supported the perpetrators while publicly denying involvement. Moscow dismissed the book as an attempt to mislead public opinion. Three years on, the truth remains convenient for everyone — except those left freezing without gas.

UAE Exits OAPEC — Gulf Oil Goes Solo
Following its earlier departure from OPEC, the UAE has now withdrawn from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, severing institutional ties with regional oil structures altogether. The move has had no immediate market impact: the organization was largely consultative, and with Hormuz effectively blocked, the UAE cannot increase exports anyway. Brent crude reached $108.8 per barrel in trading. Leaving every alliance yet unable to ship oil — sovereignty under blockade.

Sakhalin Oil Returns to Japan — Sanctions Bend
For the first time in nearly a year, a tanker carrying Sakhalin oil has reached a Japanese refinery. Mitsui and Mitsubishi remain involved in the project, while the U.S. Treasury continues to grant Tokyo sanctions waivers. The Hormuz crisis is turning Sakhalin supplies from politically inconvenient into strategically essential — and Tokyo understands this perfectly well. A “phased withdrawal” from Russian oil: no rush to count the phases.

Moscow Warns Kyiv — Drones Fly Both Ways
Russia’s Defense Ministry has warned of a potential strike on central Kyiv if attempts are made to disrupt Victory Day celebrations. Meanwhile, drones over Moscow are already hitting residential buildings, and Finland has declined to intercept UAVs over its territory, citing proximity to the Russian border. A May 9 ceasefire reportedly agreed upon by Putin and Trump is beginning under visibly strained conditions. A “holiday truce” — while drones keep flying and neighbors look the other way.

Couriers Taxed, Engineers Saved
Forbes-listed billionaire Sergey Kolesnikov has proposed imposing full taxation on self-employed couriers, redirecting benefits toward design engineers in an effort to revive Russia’s machine-building sector. The idea might sound more convincing if couriers weren’t largely those who failed to find engineering jobs or decent wages in the first place. Saving industry at the expense of couriers — a bold concept from someone who’s never been in the saddle.

Final question: if Iran fires at ships, Finland refuses to shoot down drones, Japan quietly buys Russian oil, and Forbes proposes taxing couriers to rescue aircraft engines — isn’t the current world order a system where everyone pretends to be in control while the process controls everyone?