Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich – April 23, 2026

Tehran Activates Air Defense — Oil Jumps 5%
On the evening of April 23, air defense systems activated over the skies of Tehran — and that alone was enough to send Brent crude prices soaring 5%, settling firmly above the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel. Simultaneously, Iran intensified mining of the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to sink any vessels laying mines in the strait and triple demining operations. Tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked from both sides — from within by Iran, from without by the American fleet. The strait is closed; the market is open — for panic.

"We Are United" — Tehran Answers Trump with Consolidation
After Trump publicly claimed "disunity" within Iran's political establishment, the country's highest officials — President Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, Vice President Aref, and the Head of the Supreme Court — issued a joint statement within half an hour affirming the iron unity of the nation and government. The message is stark: "One God, one Leader, one nation, one path — Iran's path to victory, dearer than life." Washington's attempt to exploit internal contradictions in Tehran backfired with a rare display of public solidarity. Trump wanted a rift — he got a parade of unanimity.

"Reparations Credit": The EU Expects Money from Moscow
The EU Council has officially approved a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intending to repay it using future "reparations from Russia" — a formulation that has already sparked intense debate over the feasibility of such a scenario. Simultaneously, the 20th sanctions package against Russia came into force: a ban on crypto-Russian platforms, restrictions on ammonia, the blacklisting of two ports — Murmansk and Tuapse — and, effective 2027, a ban on LNG terminal services for Russian companies. The EU has also prohibited transactions with the RUBx cryptocurrency and any support for the development of the digital ruble. €90 billion on history's promissory note — one could hardly imagine a bolder gamble.

Rafale over the Baltic: Europe Rehearses a Strike on Russia
France and Poland plan to conduct joint nuclear air exercises over the Baltic Sea, involving Rafale fighters armed with "nuclear warheads" — and to practice strikes on targets near St. Petersburg. The rhetoric has escalated to a new level: until recently, such scenarios were discussed only in closed analytical reports; now they feature in official military plans. Moscow has yet to respond officially, but the mere announcement is bound to affect ongoing peace negotiations. The world negotiates peace — and rehearses war. Simultaneously.

Gasoline Outpaces Inflation, Workers Dwindle Year by Year
Retail gasoline prices in Russia have risen 3.52% since the start of the year — outpacing overall inflation of 3.16% — with a liter jumping 14 kopecks in the last week alone, reaching 67 rubles. Meanwhile, Russia's Minister of Labor acknowledged a severe demographic crisis: through 2032, the economy will need to attract 1.7 million new workers annually, and over the coming years, 12 million people from industry, education, and public administration will retire. Either raising the retirement age or forced overemployment — both options threaten social unrest. Expensive fuel, cheap labor — a formula familiar to any great power in decline.