When the trading chief of the Middle East's largest oil company publicly names a specific month as a potential tipping point, that's not an analytical aside. It's a market signal: get ready. Philippe Khoury of ADNOC has warned that August could mark a sharp price spike if demand keeps rising and the supply crisis triggered by the war on Iran remains unresolved.
The shadow fleet and maritime law appearing in the same sentence today is no coincidence. Qatar and the UAE — whose companies QatarEnergy and ADNOC account for roughly a fifth of global LNG exports — have begun switching off vessel tracking systems while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effectively mirroring the tactics of Russia's shadow fleet.
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Kirill Dmitriev called on Europe to resume imports of Russian gas and restart pipeline supplies via Nord Stream. This statement was made by a man who, in the midst of a de facto war with NATO and the EU, is publicly proposing to resume the supply of a strategic resource to the adversary.
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