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Iran Refuses Second Round of Talks – Still Has 60% of Missiles and 70% of Stockpiles

Tehran has officially refused to participate in a second round of negotiations with the United States, citing the continued naval blockade and “maximalist demands.” Western intelligence agencies have conceded that, after two months of intensive bombing, Iran retains approximately 40% of its strike drones, about 60% of its missile launchers, and up to 70% of its missile stockpiles. In response, Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s power plants and bridges, calling it an “honor” and chiding previous administrations for failing to do so over 47 years. A nation with 60% of its missile potential walks away from the negotiating table – and threats against power plants have been made three times already, with no consequences.

Houthis Threaten to Close Bab el-Mandeb – The Second Strait Is Next

The Deputy Foreign Minister of the Houthi government has warned: if Trump continues to obstruct a peaceful settlement, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be closed. The Strait of Hormuz is already under the military control of the IRGC. Bab el-Mandeb was previously blockaded by the Houthis in 2023. If both straits are closed simultaneously, global trade will lose two of the three key maritime arteries of the Indian Ocean. Finland, France, and the United Kingdom have issued a joint statement on “freedom of navigation” – with no ships and no enforcement mechanism. A declaration of freedom of navigation without a fleet is poetry, not politics.

Trump’s Approval Rating at 37% – Lowest of His Second Term

An NBC poll has recorded that 37% approve of the president, while 63% disapprove – a historic anti-record for a second term. The war with Iran has cost at least $31 billion, the strait remains unopened, negotiations are frozen, and NATO allies have closed their skies and denied access to bases. Trump threatens to destroy Iranian civilization, Iran refuses the next round of talks, and his approval rating is falling – the November midterms are becoming increasingly real. 63% disapproval is no longer opposition; it is a majority.

Turkey Wants a Security Rent from Europe – with EU Membership as a Bonus

Ankara understands that a US withdrawal from NATO – or even the hypothetical possibility of it – transforms Turkey into Europe’s indispensable military partner. Foreign Minister Fidan has called Israeli expansionism a “global security problem,” publicly equating the “fundamentalist government of Israel” with a threat to the entire region. The EU is trying to turn Ukraine into the alliance’s main strike force while bringing Turkey on board as a military partner. Ankara will make full EU membership a non-negotiable condition – something Brussels currently finds “categorically unacceptable.” Turkey sells security at a high price. Brussels is not ready to pay, yet cannot manage without Ankara.

Lavrov: Ukraine Is Not Priority Number One. Iran Is Also Someone Else’s War

Russia’s Foreign Minister has publicly downgraded the status of the Ukrainian settlement, calling it an issue that “is not priority number one.” Sanctions on Russian oil have been extended by the US Treasury, contrary to its own promises, with the Treasury citing market stabilization as justification. Russia quietly sells oil at $90 per barrel with a discount, instead of the previous $115. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has brought Moscow windfall profits; reopening it would lower prices. Either way, the Kremlin gains compared to the starting point. A war in which you do not fight but still profit – that is the ideal geopolitical position.

IRGC Fires on Vessels, US Hunts Tankers Across the Ocean – Trade Paralyzed

In the past 24 hours, Iranian speedboats have attacked at least three civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters. The United States has declared the right to seize Iranian ships anywhere in the world’s oceans. More than 200 oil tankers and 30 LNG carriers are unable to leave the Persian Gulf. Insurance premiums for transit have reached historic highs. The only functioning route is the Saudi East-West pipeline, running at maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day. Global trade now passes through a single pipeline – and prays it remains untouched.

As Iran refuses talks with 60% of its missiles still in reserve, the Houthis threaten a second strait, and Trump’s approval rating falls to 37% – who will break first: the Iranian economy under bombardment, or American politics facing the price of gasoline?

The Strait of Hormuz: Open — and Immediately Under Threat of Closure Again
Iran opened the strait to all commercial vessels, and Brent crude promptly plunged below $90 — a drop of more than 10% in just a few hours. Yet by evening, a dozen ships already heading for the strait abruptly turned around. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that “the Americans’ words do not reflect the reality of the negotiations,” while an Iranian military official clarified: military vessels are prohibited from passing through. Tehran has warned it will close the strait again if the U.S. continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Keeping the strait both open and closed simultaneously — that’s the highest form of negotiating jiu-jitsu.

$20 Billion for Uranium — Iran Says "This Is Sacrosanct"
The U.S. and Iran are discussing a deal: Washington would unfreeze approximately $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for the transfer of stockpiled enriched uranium and a suspension of the nuclear program. Trump called the Strait of Hormuz “Iran’s Strait” and thanked Tehran for opening it — only for Iran’s Foreign Ministry to declare an hour later that the uranium “will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances,” and that the very possibility “was never raised by the Iranian side.” Trump thanks Iran for something that doesn’t exist; Iran denies negotiations over something that is being discussed — welcome to Middle Eastern diplomacy.

Chinese Satellite Guided Iranian Missiles to U.S. Bases
According to Rappler, Iran used the Chinese reconnaissance satellite TEE-01B to carry out precision strikes on the Prince Sultan and Muwaffaq Salti air bases, the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, and facilities in Erbil — a satellite obtained from Earth Eye Co. at the end of 2024. Imagery was taken both before and after the attacks, confirming the use of China’s orbital constellation not only for reconnaissance but also for battle damage assessment. Beijing called the information “disinformation”; the Pentagon neither confirmed nor denied it. China has not fought a single day of war — and yet found itself co-author of Iran’s most precise strikes.

"Reserves Are Exhausted" — Economy Minister Says Aloud What Others Have Kept Silent About
Maxim Reshetnikov has publicly acknowledged: the economic situation in Russia is “becoming more complicated,” reserves are “largely exhausted,” and businesses are feeling the pressure of tax changes to which they are “forced to adapt.” This is the first such blunt admission at the level of a line minister — against the backdrop of the ruble trading at 75 to the dollar, a ban on gasoline exports, and criminal liability for cryptocurrency. Russian oil exports to the EU collapsed by a factor of 3.2 in February, hitting their lowest level since November 2025. When the economy minister says “reserves are exhausted,” that is not an alarm signal — it is an acknowledgment of fact after the signal has already been sounded.

Roskomnadzor — “The Most Criticized Agency” According to the State Duma Itself
The first deputy head of the State Duma’s IT Committee publicly called Roskomnadzor officials “arbitrary,” Wasserman promised to “personally look into the matter,” and sellers on marketplaces report a 40% drop in conversions due to VPN blocks. Customers from Kazakhstan and Belarus have also been caught in the filters, e‑commerce is suffering multimillion-dollar losses, and United Russia is blocking any requests for explanations from the agency. Blocking trade with Kazakhstan in a bid to catch Russian VPN users — that is no longer digital sovereignty; that is digital autism.

France Relocates Intelligence from Moscow to Tashkent — and Trains the President of Uzbekistan’s Security Detail
Paris is creating a post of Security Attaché in Tashkent, having closed a similar position in Moscow following suspicions of ties with Russian security agencies. The area of responsibility will cover all of Central Asia, and French interest in Uzbekistan’s uranium resources has already been formalized diplomatically. In 2024, French intelligence services trained President Mirziyoyev’s personal guard. While Russia loses Central Asia one country at a time, France is quietly occupying the vacated positions.

While the Strait of Hormuz is open/closed in real time, a minister admits to depleted reserves, and a Chinese satellite helped hammer American bases — who in this multi‑move chess game has yet to make their play?