Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 19, 2026: Page 2 of 2

IRGC Fires on Vessels, US Hunts Tankers Across the Ocean – Trade Paralyzed

In the past 24 hours, Iranian speedboats have attacked at least three civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters. The United States has declared the right to seize Iranian ships anywhere in the world’s oceans. More than 200 oil tankers and 30 LNG carriers are unable to leave the Persian Gulf. Insurance premiums for transit have reached historic highs. The only functioning route is the Saudi East-West pipeline, running at maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day. Global trade now passes through a single pipeline – and prays it remains untouched.

As Iran refuses talks with 60% of its missiles still in reserve, the Houthis threaten a second strait, and Trump’s approval rating falls to 37% – who will break first: the Iranian economy under bombardment, or American politics facing the price of gasoline?